history_monk: (Me)
[personal profile] history_monk
I've been to vote. I'm not very well, but the polling station is only 50 yards away. The polling station staff described voting as "lively."

The question is what happens next. If the vote is "leave", then the Tories who backed that cause will want to displace Cameron, to avoid compromise and back-sliding. If it is "remain" they will probably want to leave him in power, so that he can be blamed for everything that happens which they don't like.

So if it's "leave", there will be a vote of confidence in the Commons, probably next week. That leaves Labour with a significant problem: keep a right-wing Tory government in power, abstain and risk a collapse of the government, or bring it down for sure? If the government collapses, there will probably be a general election, since I doubt anyone else can win a vote of confidence. The Leave camp might welcome this, since they might well feel that momentum is with them.

Interesting times.

Date: 2016-06-23 03:25 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vicarage.livejournal.com
If there is an election, just what sort of Tory party could present itself? After all most of the sitting MPs are Remain, and could hardly campaign for a Leave party, even with the weak argument of national unity. So would they give up their careers meekly, or have the party rip apart completely, with 2 candidates for every seat? Which would claim to be the true Conservatives?

There are enough rebels to force an election after a Remain vote too, but the ones who refused to respect the will of the populace (or other weasel words) could be expelled from the party and join UKIP

Either way, we get to do it all again, but at least with an honest choice, rather than last year where the country voted in a schizophrenic government.

(If its Leave, my first question to my MP, who was prepared to write articles in the Guardian in favour of Remain, is how he can abandon his principles to keep a riven party going)

Not sure Corbyn's Labour are up to the soul-searching of writing a new manifesto though.

Date: 2016-06-23 04:10 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] damerell.livejournal.com
A proper Tory schism would be nice, wouldn't it?

Date: 2016-06-23 05:04 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] coth.livejournal.com
Not sure that's how the no confidence bits work when we have fixed term Parliaments - there was a good article about that a week or so ago, but I can't find it for you.

If we vote Leave then Cameron will have to resign as Tory leader, but he wouldn't necessarily have to step down immediately and there might not be a no confidence vote in the Commons.

Date: 2016-06-23 05:37 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] history-monk.livejournal.com
If the HoC votes that it has no confidence in the government, and doesn't pass a vote of confidence within 14 days, there's a general election. I presume the five-year counter resets at that point.

The main point about the fixed-term parliament act was that it removed the ability of a PM to call an election for tactical reasons.

Date: 2016-06-23 05:11 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dorispossum.livejournal.com
I'd rather stay in EU than change our government right now. And I'd rather the Tories did their internecine meltdown AFTER Labour sorts itself out into a viable governing party - maybe 2 more years? Patience.

Date: 2016-06-23 05:35 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ffutures.livejournal.com
Sums up my position pretty well.

Date: 2016-06-23 05:32 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ffutures.livejournal.com
I was a bit late out but voted around 1PM - there were three other people voting while I was there, which I suppose isn't too bad for that time of day.

Date: 2016-06-23 06:16 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] damerell.livejournal.com
I saw three voters (self included) two of whom were members of Rocksoc, so I infer the outcome will be decided by EU availability of snakebite and unlikely metal albums.

Date: 2016-06-23 06:30 pm (UTC)
drplokta: (Default)
From: [personal profile] drplokta
There won't be a vote of no confidence, there will be an election within the Conservative party for a new leader. That way they can change leader without having to risk a new election.

Date: 2016-06-24 05:25 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] history-monk.livejournal.com
Looks plausible so far: the Lave camp are saying they want him to stay in the short term.

Date: 2016-06-24 08:14 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dorispossum.livejournal.com
And this seems to be precisely what's happening this morning.

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