history_monk: (Me)
history_monk ([personal profile] history_monk) wrote2016-06-23 03:26 pm
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Chose your own course of history adventure!

I've been to vote. I'm not very well, but the polling station is only 50 yards away. The polling station staff described voting as "lively."

The question is what happens next. If the vote is "leave", then the Tories who backed that cause will want to displace Cameron, to avoid compromise and back-sliding. If it is "remain" they will probably want to leave him in power, so that he can be blamed for everything that happens which they don't like.

So if it's "leave", there will be a vote of confidence in the Commons, probably next week. That leaves Labour with a significant problem: keep a right-wing Tory government in power, abstain and risk a collapse of the government, or bring it down for sure? If the government collapses, there will probably be a general election, since I doubt anyone else can win a vote of confidence. The Leave camp might welcome this, since they might well feel that momentum is with them.

Interesting times.

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