history_monk: (Default)
history_monk ([personal profile] history_monk) wrote2017-04-18 01:34 pm
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Snap general election

This is a semi-cunning plan. Like most of what Mrs May has been doing since she became Prime Minister, it's mainly about improving the position of the Conservative Party.

  • She would not be doing this if she didn't feel confident of winning the election. Given the disarray of the Labour Party, her confidence is not misplaced.

  • It created an instant dilemma for the Labour Party: support it and lose seats, or oppose it (and prevent the election - the vote needs a two-thirds majority) and open themselves to accusations of supporting everything the Conservatives do subsequently. In fact, Labour has welcomed it; Jeremy Corbyn may be delusional enough to believe he can win the election.

  • It gives May a personal mandate, rather than being the person who the Conservatives elected after the previous leader resigned.

  • It forces most of the press to decide if they support the Conservatives or UKIP.

  • It means that the Conservatives will be in power for a little over three years after Brexit, rather than just over one year. Since anyone other than the most fanatic Brexiteer would concede that there may well be short-term economic instability after Brexit, this increases the chance that the next election will be held under conditions of stability.

Overall, good politics, more questionable government. It delays the start of proper Brexit negotiations, and reduces the ability of negotiators to compromise. But that's probably what May wants when she says that this will bring "strong leadership" to the negotiations.
ffutures: (Default)

[personal profile] ffutures 2017-04-18 10:33 pm (UTC)(link)
I would so love to see it go horribly wrong for her with e.g. a Green victory, but the odds are unfortunately flying laps around the avian pigs.
dorispossum: (Default)

[personal profile] dorispossum 2017-04-19 07:04 am (UTC)(link)
I just hope there'll be enough of Labour left when it's over to enable some kind of renewal after the Corbynism folly. The thought of permanent Tory rule makes my blood run cold.
Edited 2017-04-19 07:05 (UTC)
dorispossum: (Default)

[personal profile] dorispossum 2017-04-20 09:02 am (UTC)(link)
I don't think Corbyn will want to stay if Labour does as disastrously as polls suggest, or that his supporters will try to make him. (Many, I suspect, will return to niche politics.) I think he's already smelling the grass! Meanwhile, the mainstream left will have to begin the long, slow process of recovering credibility. After the 1983 debacle, that took 14 years.

For now, the best we can do is tactical voting to minimise the scale of May's coronation. I'm hoping the Lib Dems may snatch anti Brexit constituencies around London.
Edited 2017-04-20 09:08 (UTC)